NFL over and unders have been around for 15 years. I should know, as I was the first one to book them back in 1989.  No sense going over the history of how it got started, as Larry's already given you the Readers' Digest version above. It's a tough prop to book but entertaining and very fair to the consumer. Typically, there will be two or three teams that overachieve their designated number and a few who fall way short. The rest of the pack will be right there, one game 'over' or 'under', their projected win total. So lets get started with year number 16. Larry and I will be ON RECORD and come January, will be 'ripe' for all the second-guessers....

 

AFC EAST...Buffalo Bills 8..Mularkey will fall under this total if he does not protect Bledsoe. Defense is solid..Miami Dolphins 8..With Williams I believe 9 would have been as high as they could have gone but without him (and now Boston too!) a .500-season is what Coach Dave is staring at, as he opens what will probably be his last season in South Florida..New England Patriots..10 1/2..One of the few Super Bowl winners who might have gotten better after winning the big game. The big back from Cincy will help and Ty Law should be calmed down by the regular season opener..NY Jets  9..They keep saying that Pennington is the key but if Curtis Martin keeps wearing down in the latter part of the year because of the number carries (and age) nine wins might be a stretch.... 

 

AFC SOUTH...Houston Texans 7..Capers knows he has to keep people off of Carr's back to start being truly competitive. They have a lot of good parts to this puzzle and I believe seven wins will translate into a good season..Indianapolis Colts..10 1/2..As they proved last year, they can beat the teams that like to trade points with them (Chiefs) but they'll need home field so as not to be forced to visit Foxboro in January. I believe 11 wins is well within reach this year and that's from someone who is not much of a Tony Dungy fan!.Jacksonville Jaguars 8..2nd year for both Del Rio and Leftwich equals at least 8 wins..Tennessee Titans 9..Too many chinks starting to show. CAN NOT lose both meetings to the Colts as they did last year, if they plan on winning nine or more in 2004....

 

AFC NORTH...Baltimore Ravens  9 1/2..Even with Jamal Lewis' legal problems and still guessing on Boller, I think they can get there because both Pittsburgh and Cleveland have gone backwards..Cincinnati Bengals  8..A lot of hype which you will see in the Bengals' pointspreads early on but they still have a 2nd-year head coach at the helm.. Cleveland Browns  6 1/2..Butch Davis should have stayed in Florida and Garcia will find out it ain't so easy with no running game plus Winslow might not be signed until Thanksgiving (?)..Pittsburgh Steelers  71/2..Ward, Burress, and Randle-El are the bright spots but you have a 'Bus' that needs a major overhaul and Maddox might be selling insurance this time next year. Also extending Cowher's contract was a little mystifying, to this Pittsburgh native....    

 

AFC NORTH...Denver Broncos  9..I think they gave up too much for Champ Bailey but I also think 9 wins is a 'stone-bone' number..KC Chiefs..10 1/2..Comes down to this! You know you they will score but do you think with Gunther Cunningham on board (defensive coordinator), they can now stop somebody in the fourth quarter on a crucial drive? I am leaning towards "yes"..Oakland Raiders 8..Get used to it A,l as this is the number you will be looking at for a while. Tim Brown gone now and a lot more to go later!.San Diego Chargers 5..As bad as things look now and still no Rivers in camp, with LT in the backfield I think they fly 'over' and get at least six wins this year....

 

NFC EAST...Dallas Cowboys 8 1/2..With 100-year-old Vinny at QB and squeezing out at least 900 yards from Eddie George, this team will be very competitive. It will be a great division to watch in 2004, even with the Giants in a semi-slide..NY Giants 7..Manning-Warner or Warner-Manning, Tiki Barber must still hold onto the ball, especially in the red zone. I may be alone but my early 'take' is that I'll be 'on' the Giants more than I'll be against them this year..Philadelphia Eagles..10..Unlike the Buffalo Bills, who waited to lose in the Super Bowl, the Eagles have lost in three straight NFC Championship Games! No excuses this year as they've added that "missing piece to the puzzle". At least according to T.O. They still need to run the ball better..Washington Redskins 9..Once again you will be paying through your teeth when they are installed as a home favorite but the 'Skins will be better than they were under Spurrier. How much better? Right now, I don't know....

 

NFC SOUTH...Atlanta Falcons 9..Be a little careful in betting your wife's retirement money now that Vick's healthy! The team still has plenty of problems to address before they start getting to double-digit wins in the NFL..Carolina Panthers 9 1/2..Won't sneak up on everyone as they did last year but they can still move the ball on the ground and 'eat' the clock. Davis and Foster take an awful lot of pressure off of Delhomme. Their 8th-ranked defense is solid and seems to come up with 'key' stops at 'key' times.. New Orleans Saints 8..Competitive division but if they can stop someone and keep Joe Horn off his cell phone, I think they can get to eight wins..Tampa Bay Bucs 9..I think they can get there because I feel Gruden is being challenged more than his team and is one of those coaches that can be a difference-maker.... 

 

NFC NORTH...Chicago Bears 6..I think this division is down a little and Lovie Smith will still bring some spark but Grossman has to do it for an entire year and they better hope that Urlacher does not miss any significant time..Detroit Lions 7..Every now and then you just get a 'feel' for a team and "Mooch", with a year to sort things out, will be become a burr to a lot of teams this year..Green Bay Packers 8 1/2..Still a solid team with a great QB but "all good things come to an end" eventually and I believe this year we do not see those late-game heroics from Favre..Minnesota Vikings 9..If they can get over that Arizona game from last year, they will be all right. I think they will and should go on to win this division....

 

NFC WEST....Arizona Cardinals 5 1/2..Plenty of work to be done but with Boldin and now Fitzgerald, McCown will have some real weapons. Don't know if I would have named Emmitt as my starting running back in early-June, though..St Louis Rams 9..I mentioned at the start, about teams over or under achieving. Here's my 'under'! With injuries to Kennedy and Faulk (saying that his knee is acting up), I think you may just see an 8-8 record, or worse, for the Rams..San Francisco 49ers 5 1/2..They won't win many but look to take them in a few spots, as the points should be overly generous in 2004..Seattle 9 1/2..You think Hasselbeck still has nightmares of that pass in the flat from last year's playoff game vs the Packers? This is a "put up or shut up" year for Holmgren and I believe they will "put up"!  Of course it is easier to "put up" when you have Alexander carrying the ball for 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns (as he did last year).... 

 

That's all  32 of them and I'll let Larry take it from here. Anyway, I'm late for a rubdown at the Flamingo spa! Take care and enjoy the football season....Jimmy V.